History suggests that Van Persie will leave

Another season has come to an end and yet again Arsenal are facing the prospect of losing their best player. Their captain and talisman Robin van Persie has one year remaining on his current contract and as expected the vultures are circling for his signature.

Initial reports suggest that he is contemplating a move away from the Emirates this summer after talks ended in stalemate last week. Having witnessed his great friend Cesc Fabregas leave the club last summer few could blame the Dutch striker for wanting to leave North London.

Unfortunately for Arsenal their lack of success in recent seasons has seen many of their top stars leave the club to seek silverware elsewhere. Interestingly most of the better players have gone on to win various trophies at their next club and this is something that will not escape RVP’s attention (or his agent’s). Even though Barcelona have failed to win La Liga or the European Champions League this season Fabregas has still already won three trophies this season (and should compete for their fourth against Athletic Bilbao on Friday).

There were of course another two high profile departures last summer with Gael Clichy and Samir Nasri deciding that Manchester City offered a more realistic chance of silverware than Arsenal. After considerable criticism from the fans both players were vindicated with City’s Premier League triumph this season. It is easy to see why many of the Arsenal players view the club as a stepping stone to future success.

If you go back even further there are even more examples. Thierry Henry enjoyed initial success at Arsenal but when the club began to stagnate he left for Barcelona where he won seven major titles as a player in three seasons. Of course there is then one of the chief protagonists in the Van Persie saga; Patrick Vieira.

After years of transfer rumours Vieira finally departed Arsenal for Juventus in 2005 after scoring their decisive penalty kick against Manchester United in the FA Cup, which was their last trophy. He enjoyed considerable success in Italy where he won six titles during his spells with Inter Milan and Juve. He is of course now working at Manchester City and will be involved heavily with attempting to lure Van Persie to the newly crowned Premier League champions.

This situation must be incredibly frustrating for Arsenal fans and everyone associated with the club. However, it is a situation they seem to continually find themselves in every year and when you look back at history it suggests RVP will leave for pastures new this summer. 

David Silva – best player in the Premiership?

The Premier League has only just begun but already the leading candidate for player of the season has emerged at Manchester City, David Silva. The Spaniard, who is only starting his second season in England, is emerging as one of the best players not just in the league but in the whole of Europe.

The diminutive midfielder has been the most outstanding player thus far in my mind. Although his team-mate Sergio Aguero has stolen many of the headlines it is Silva, whose guile and technical ability is really something to behold. He is not a new player to have suddenly been unearthed though; his talent and ability has been honed and encouraged at Valencia where he played since he was 14. He became a first team regular in 2007 and it is almost unbelievable that Barcelona or Real Madrid did not sign him.

Thankfully for fans of Manchester City and the Premier League we will get to see him and his phenomenal left foot for the foreseeable future. He has the remarkable ability that many of the current Spanish players appear to have innately – the ability to find space. The way he glides around opponent’s penalty areas must give opposition managers heart failure as he drifts into yet another opening. He struggled initially with the physical demands of the league but is now fully acclimatised.

It is staggering that he is still not a regular starter for Spain but when you consider his rivals in those positions it suddenly becomes more apparent. However, a couple of years ago there was a case for suggesting that he was inferior to Fabregas, Iniesta and Xavi but now the gap is nowhere near as big. He would walk into any team in the world on current form and that includes the current Barcelona squad; he is simply too good not to pick.

Last season he became too isolated with Mancini opting to play too many defensive midfielders. He and Carlos Tevez had to create most of the chances and finish them; however, this season, with the new signings the side are playing with far more freedom. Indeed, last season Silva created 75% more chances for City than any other player at the club. The relationship between City’s front players is something to admire already and will only continue to improve. The likes of Aguero, Dzeko, Johnson, Nasri and Tevez just make the side so dangerous and with class like that they don’t need many chances.

It appeared that the Premier League was in a little trouble when it lost two of its World Class players to La Liga in recent years – Cristiano Ronaldo and Fabregas – but with Silva around the quality remains. Everyone is waiting for City to slip up and implode but with Silva in this form anything is possible this season. They begin their Champions League journey tomorrow night and it will be fascinating to see how they get on.

Guardiola doesn’t rest on his laurels

It appears that a week cannot pass at the moment without more praise of Barcelona FC; their style, technique and work rate is admired globally at the moment, and quite rightly so. They are the stand out team in European football at this moment in time and the side that every manager aspires to catch and supersede. The team is blessed with the best three players in world football; Iniesta, Messi and Xavi and have recently added Cesc Fabregas and Alexis Sanchez.

However, it is all very well having the best players but you have to have a coach who can orchestrate the players. In the summer of 2008 it emerged that Barcelona were to part company with the then manager Frank Rijkaard and that former Barca fans favourite Josep Guardiola would be succeeding him. It certainly raised a few eyebrows as his only previous experience had been coaching the Barcelona B team.

The first thing he did was to get rid of some of the side’s star players which again looked slightly controversial. Out went Deco, Edmilson, Eto’o, Ronaldinho and Zambrotta and in came Daniel Alves, Seydou Keita and Gerard Pique. He also promoted Busquets, Jeffren and Pedro to the first team after coaching them for a year in the B team. He ended the season winning the Champions League, the Copa del Rey and La Liga in his first season. Surely it was the players everyone said….how little they knew.

Success appears to have come naturally to the Catalan coach who has now guided his beloved Barca to 12 titles in just over three years. However, it is the ethos and style of football that has endeared them to many and made them so successful. He has made them the best pressing side I have ever seen; every player from right back to striker hounds, harries and tackles under possession is retained. Pep has also clearly told the players that their best form of defence is also to retain possession. It sounds like common sense to say but actually is very hard to do in practice, most of their games end with Barca having had 60%+ in terms of possession.

The side also benefits hugely from their youth training facility – La Masia. After the purchases this summer they are now capable of putting out a starting eleven that features only home grown players. This education they have received teaches them how to look after the ball, how to use it effectively and most importantly gives them the awareness to know what their teammates are doing too.

He is also responsible for deploying Messi in the new position ‘the deep lying’ striker. From here he is able to drop deep and pick up the ball and then really hurt the opposition. Barca appear to have developed an incredible knack of playing defence splitting passes from just inside their own half. The two wide players on either side are then able to make inside out runs which then put them through on goal – as shown against Madrid in the Super Cup.

Last weekend’s game at home to Villarreal was fascinating for a number of reasons. Firstly, they brushed aside the side that finished fourth 5-0 which just shows how far ahead they are of the competition. Secondly, Pep began the game with a 3-4-3 formation with Busquets and Mascherano playing as part of the three defenders alongside Abidal. Next there was Keita who was the defensive midfielder and then they deployed Fabregas, Iniesta and Thiago in a three in front.

Whenever one of the back three brought the ball forward Keita would simply drop back into the three as cover. It enabled the side to always have at least two options to pass to every time they got the ball which makes it almost impossible for the opposition to retain possession – especially when up against some of the best football players in the world. It was remarkable to see and is the closest example of total football I can remember seeing in my lifetime.

Barcelona are a joy to behold for any football fan at the moment due to their style of play. Whilst many fans and pundits are quick to say it’s mainly because they have Messi, much of the credit must lie at Guardiola’s door. He has transformed the club from a very good team into possibly the best club side in the history of the game. Football is cyclical and the gap between them and the rest will narrow as time goes on but it will be fascinating to see how Pep’s career develops from here. He will not remain at the Camp Nou forever and will surely fancy a new challenge in the not too distant future.

Fabregas saga finally over

After almost three years of negotiations, speculation and transfer gossip the biggest transfer saga in history ended today with Cesc Fabregas finally sealing his move to Barcelona. The fee is understood to be £35 million with further add-ons depending upon the clubs success in La Liga and the Champions League.

It seems that the Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger reluctantly conceded defeat in attempting to hang onto his captain. The decision was inevitable as the pressure mounted on the French manager to sell. The young Catalan spent eight years at the North London side where he became their best and most influential player. He contributed regularly to the side and was even appointed captain during the 2008/9 season.

Speaking at the press conference this afternoon Fabregas said: “I waited many days, months, years for this moment. I return home after eight years. This will be the challenge of my life.” The joy on his face was clear to see for everyone around and the relief that the saga is finally over was clearly not lost on the player.

Much of the comment appears to focus around how much he will play. Many of the Arsenal fans seem to believe he will not figure much at the Catalan club and will have to settle for warming the bench; this is simply ludicrous. The modern game is built entirely around squad systems and rotating your best players so they are at their optimum for the big games. In the last three seasons at Arsenal he has endured several injuries which has restricted his playing time significantly. Indeed over the last three years the most he has played is 66% in 2009/10.

Over the recent years there have been significant injuries to Andres Iniesta and Xavi Hernandez which has restricted the side. There is serious reason to suggest that if Iniesta had indeed been fit when they faced Inter Milan in the semi-finals of the Champions League in 09/10 they could have overcome the Italians. The emergence this summer of Thiago Alcantara has also added to the confusion but in a side with an abundance of quality there is always scope to add further excellence.

It is likely that Fabregas will indeed be eased in gently by the coach Pep Guardiola but he will certainly play in 40 odd games this season, starting with the second leg of the Spanish Super Cup. With Barcelona likely to be competing on every front this season he will certainly be a welcome addition and having played with many of the current squad for the Barcelona youth side and Spain the transition should be straight forward.

The move today will come as huge blow to Arsenal and indeed the whole of the Premier League. Fabregas has been one of the shining lights in the league for several seasons now and his contribution will be missed by all. The question for Arsenal now is how to replace their talisman and with only two weeks remaining in the transfer window Wenger must act quickly.

Premier League Preview – the battle for 4th place

The battle for the elusive final place in the Champions League will be the most intense it has ever been and is likely to be between Arsenal, Liverpool and Tottenham. All three sides are only a couple of signings away from being serious title challengers but at this moment in time do not possess enough quality to worry the top three.

Since the return of Kenny Dalglish Liverpool has once again become a force in the Premier League. Their form at the end of last season was that of Champions and if they can start well they could be a force again. The key addition of Luiz Suarez was made in January and it will be intriguing to see how he develops this season; his partnership with Andrew Carroll will be pivotal to the club. They have strengthened in midfield by adding Charlie Adam, Stewart Downing and Jordan Henderson which will certainly provide ammunition for the forwards. The key to Liverpool’s success at the end of last season in my humble opinion was the absence of Steven Gerrard. There is no doubting his importance to the club but the side appeared more balanced in his absence. The addition today of Jose Enrique will also give much needed support to the defence which will be important if they are to qualify for the Champions League again.

The goings on at Arsenal this summer have been rather strange and with the impending departures of Cesc Fabregas and Samir Nasri it will be difficult for the club to remain amongst the elite. They have strengthened by signing Gervinho and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain but it is surely not enough. There is no doubt that Arsenal still have enough quality to match anyone on their day but losing their two best players is too much at once. If manager Arsene Wenger can bolster the squad before the end of August it could be different but the signs are not good. Last season they set their bench mark against Barcelona but then got nowhere near it as they capitulated yet again at the business end of the season. If they can keep Robin van Persie fit and go some way to replacing Fabregas they could be surprise package but with their start of the season looking so tough it could be a long season for Arsenal fans.

Meanwhile at Spurs the summer has been spent trying to offload players unsuccessfully and retain key players. There are a number of fringe players that they have tried to sell but they have demanded too much money which has effectively ended all interest. Their wage bill has to be lowered due to not being in the Champions League which means they cannot buy until these players go. Although they have been linked with almost every player in Europe there still appears to be no imminent new signings. With Spurs tending to conduct most of their business at the end of the window it could be a busy end to August.

It is almost unprecedented for the competition at the top of the league to be so close and it will be an incredibly interesting season for the clubs mentioned above. It will be very tough to separate Arsenal and Liverpool for 4^th and it is likely to be dependent upon who Arsenal sign in the coming weeks. The whole club needs a lift at the moment and Wenger has to deliver.

Barcelona continue to evolve

Modern day football is very much based around having large squads where young players have to prove themselves in order to get regular football. In England we have become accustomed to players being sent on loan from Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United to lower league clubs but this summer Barcelona appear to have improved this method.

The deals struck with Chelsea and Roma for Oriol Romeu and Bojan Krkic respectively have caught the eye. Both deals have on the surface appeared to be regular transfers; however, when looking closely they appear to be loan deals based upon performance. In England we have seen a similar deal proposed for Scott Parker where West Ham are happy to loan the player for a one off fee whilst in the Championship but then want him to return if they win promotion to the Premier League.

The similarity in all of these deals is that Barcelona can buy the player back either at the end of this season or next for a fee slightly higher than the original fee paid. Both players have graduated the much lauded La Masia academy but seem to be surplus to requirement. However, it seems that Barcelona are trying to avoid a repeat of the biggest transfer saga of the modern age – Cesc Fabregas. Most of the players that emerge from Barcelona’s academy have incredible technical ability and seem to reach their peak in their mid-20s.

Although Fabregas’ case is slightly different it certainly appears that they are trying to prevent having to pay over the odds for a former player again. The deal for Romeu to Chelsea stipulates that Barca can buy the player back at the end of this season for €10 million and for €15 million at the end of the following season. It certainly makes sense to include clauses for young players when they leave, especially at such an influential academy. The only similarity in this country is at Arsenal where they often include sell on clauses for young player that they lose.

Similar to Charles Darwin’s theory of evolution the football transfer system is learning and adapting as it progresses and this new method is one that will be replicated much more in the future. Whilst many of the current first team have come through the ranks players like Gerard Pique (and potentially Cesc Fabregas) have had to leave to gain the required experience to develop their education. The chance to represent this side will become even tougher in the coming years so they have taken measures to ensure they don’t lose out on players they have taught.

Whilst the plaudits continue for their on-field performances they are also adapting and adjusting to the demands of the modern game. As I have mentioned in many previous blogs sport is about innovation rather than imitation and the Catalans have devised a new model for honing their players, even if they have to go elsewhere for a period of time.

Modric to stay, but for how long

The news reports today stating that Luka Modric will remain at Tottenham just do not seem convincing. Whilst speculation has been rife for the last couple of years that he could be Paul Scholes’ long-term replacement his statement last month suggests he has set his heart on a move to Chelsea.

The stance taken by Spurs is correct; the player is under contract and is a vital part of the squad. Having failed to qualify for the Champions League this season they can ill afford to lose one of their best players, and certainly to one of their main rivals. However, the situation seems incredibly similar to that if Dmitar Berbatov’s a few years ago. One feels that as soon as a valuation is met the transfer will go through.

It has already been quite a lively summer for Spurs who have been linked with almost every player in Europe once again. It is understood that Redknapp cannot buy until he sells some of the fringe players. They have a very large squad, and some may argue a very talented one at that. The likes of Bassong, Bentley, Defoe, Hutton and Palacios may all move on which would surely generate £30-40 million. However, this is why the Modric deal is so crucial, and it is why Daniel Levy has become so involved.

If Spurs were to sell Gareth Bale it really would not affect the team that much. He is a promising player but has done nothing consistently to suggest he is anything other than a good prospect. If a club comes in with a bid of anything over £20 million Spurs should bite their hand off. The Welshman clearly has serious back problems and sooner or later the cortisone will stop working and so will he. However, selling Modric would be an admission that Spurs are not capable of holding onto their best players, as they have demonstrated over the last 10 years.

The situation at White Hart Lane is beginning to mirror the scenario across London at Arsenal. Once the senior and best players start to leave the club it becomes very dangerous. Whilst many gooners are convinced they will bounce back one really has to worry for their future next season if Fabregas and Nasri were to leave. Who would want to go there? Spurs face exactly the same issue with Modric. If he leaves why would one of the best strikers in the world go to Tottenham?

The player himself has been very quiet since giving that interview the other month and it is always difficult to believe everything you read at this time of the year. However, with other sides competing for that lucrative top four finish it will be even harder for Spurs to gain qualification next season. It could well be that Modric has a verbal agreement in place that he can leave next year if they fail to qualify.

Daniel Levy has worked very hard to get Spurs to where they are today (even if his manager believes it was entirely his tactical genius that got them there) and he does not want to lose one of his stars. He has dealt with the matter incredibly well thus far but I just do not see this matter coming to an end in the near future; it could well be the Cesc part II saga. The statements and comments look good for Spurs today but this matter is far from over.

Cesc Fabregas to Barcelona??

The transfer saga that dragged on throughout last summer is set to rear its head again in the coming days. Spanish newspaper Marca published an article over the weekend claiming that personal terms have all been agreed but the deal still hinges on whether Arsenal and Barcelona can agree a deal.

The fee Barcelona are willing to pay appears to be around the £35 million mark with a possibility over player exchanges to lower the cash amount. Their valuation appears to be comparable with David Silva who moved from Valencia to Manchester City last summer for £24 million. Silva is a year older than Cesc and struggles to hold down a regular starting place for Spain, which is similar to Fabregas.

However, with some of the astronomical transfer fees that Liverpool in particular have paid in recent months Arsenal’s valuation is considerably higher. They see their captain valued around the £45-50 million mark which would almost certainly price Barca out of a move. The key issue remains whether Fabregas really wants to leave Arsenal.

There is no question that he would like to return to Catalonia in the near future and play for his beloved Barcelona. Questions have been raised about how much he would play but modern day football is all about squads. The physical demands on the top players these days are far greater than at any time in the past. Previous championship winners used to be able to win trophies using 15 players; this is simply not possible these days. When you consider Seydou Keita made 56 appearances for Barca this season this question is put into perspective; although many were as a substitute late on in games.

The player exchange rumour is one that could interest Arsene Wenger. Last night showcased Thiago Alcantara’s ability and he certainly looks like another talented prospect who has graduated through Barca’s academy La Masia. However, losing his captain would be disastrous for Wenger. Since his arrival in 2003 he has been nurtured and developed into being the player he is now. The natural ability he possesses was always there but playing with the likes of Vieira has made him the player he is today.

It would represent a massive blow to Arsenal if Fabregas does decide his future lies in Barcelona. However, with the varying degree of valuations floating around it seems unlikely a deal will be agreed, unless Barcelona pulls out all the stops. If Ibrahimovic signs for AC Milan they will receive €24 million after the fee was agreed last summer. Although they have already made moves to sign Guiseppe Rossi from Villareal there should be just enough money to sign Cesc.

The pressure being applied from the Barcelona players must be difficult to ignore for Fabregas who has stated he would only move to Barca if he indeed leaves Arsenal. It will be an interesting few weeks but I for one hope it is resolved one way or the other quickly. It would be a great shame for the Premier League to lose one of its real genuine talents but on the other side it would be interesting to see him progress at the best club in the world.